Two of Wall Street’s most influential technology analysts have laid out aggressive bull-case scenarios for Alphabet and Microsoft.

They argued that accelerating artificial intelligence adoption could propel each company toward a $5 trillion market valuation by 2026.

While both tech giants are already dominant mega-caps, these analysts contend that the market is still underestimating the operating leverage.

Wall Street’s $5 trillion AI bull case

As per a report by The Motley Fool, path to a $5 trillion valuation for these tech titans is paved with specific analyst targets that imply massive gains from today’s prices.

Alphabet (GOOGL)

Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak has set a bull-case price target of $415 per share, which represents roughly 35% upside from the current share price of $307.

This target would push Alphabet’s market capitalization to the $5 trillion threshold.​ The thesis hinges on the rapid monetization of GenAI across Alphabet’s ecosystem.

The key drivers include:

  • Search & YouTube: Integrating generative AI to boost ad efficacy and user engagement.
  • Cloud Growth: Enterprise demand for Google Cloud’s AI infrastructure.
  • Operational Efficiency: Using AI internally to streamline costs, creating significant operating leverage as revenues scale.

Microsoft (MSFT)

Wells Fargo analyst Michael Turrin sees an even steeper climb for the software giant, setting a target of $700 per share.

This implies approximately 47% upside from the current trading price of $475 and a market value exceeding $5.1 trillion.​

Turrin’s rationale focuses on Microsoft’s entrenched position in enterprise software and its aggressive AI roadmap:

  • Azure AI: Continued acceleration in cloud revenue driven by AI workload migration.
  • Copilot Adoption: Widespread uptake of paid AI assistants across the Microsoft 365 suite (Word, Excel, Teams), creating a powerful new recurring revenue stream.
  • Pricing Power: The ability to command premium pricing for AI-integrated tools in a corporate environment that relies on Microsoft’s ecosystem.

What investors should watch before buying?

While the $5 trillion targets are enticing, they represent bull-case scenarios, not guaranteed outcomes. Investors need to weigh these projections against real-world execution risks.

Both stocks are trading at premium multiples relative to their historical averages.

Alphabet, for instance, trades near 30 times earnings, a level that assumes flawless execution of its growth strategy. Any stumble in earnings growth could lead to a swift multiple contraction.​

The race to $5 trillion is expensive. Both companies are pouring tens of billions into Nvidia chips and data center infrastructure.

Investors must monitor whether this massive capex spending generates a commensurate return on investment (ROI) in the near term, or if it weighs on free cash flow margins.

The AI landscape is fiercely competitive.

Alphabet faces pressure to defend its search dominance against new AI-native competitors, while Microsoft must maintain its lead against rivals like AWS and Salesforce.

Alphabet and Microsoft are already the titans of the tech world, but leading analysts believe the AI revolution has unlocked a new tier of trillion-dollar growth.

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